TikTok Shop is an ever-evolving marketplace, sparking constant debate on the key drivers of success. Often, these discussions revolve around anecdotal success stories—brands that skyrocketed overnight due to signing one big-name affiliate or orchestrating a highly successful live event. However, at Trendio, we’ve long believed that engaging a large number of relevant affiliates is the single most critical factor for success. To move beyond opinion, we conducted a data-driven analysis on 500 beauty brands on TikTok Shop, testing multiple correlations between Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and various factors, including average follower size of affiliates, number of macro affiliates engaged, number and hours of Lives, brand follower size, brand posting cadence, average unit price, to name a few.

The Clear Winner: Affiliate Posts Drive Sales

Among all these factors, one stood out far ahead of the rest: the number of posts from affiliates.

The chart below plots, for every brand, the affiliate posts generated over six months and its December GMV on TikTok Shop. Despite inherent limitations—seasonal demand variations, brand awareness differences, and marketing spend disparities—the correlation remained remarkably strong. The R² value (a measure of correlation strength) came out at 0.63, indicating a significant relationship between affiliate posts and sales.

On the right side of our chart, we highlight the number of posts from leading brands in the category—often an order of magnitude higher than what many brands assume when entering TikTok Shop. The takeaway is clear: more content from affiliates equals more sales.

Does This Mean You Should Focus on More Affiliate Posts? Yes, But…

While increasing affiliate-generated content is a proven growth strategy, the quality and effectiveness of those posts will drive your profitability.

Looking at the correlation chart, we observed significant variation around the trendline.

Brands in the blue zone extract above-average value from their affiliate posts, leading to higher ROI on sampling and promotional efforts. Brands in the pink zone experience below-average returns, with some seeing negative ROI, often pushing them into unprofitable territory.

The impact extends beyond just affiliate posts. Brands that generate higher-performing content also tend to see better results from paid ads, with lower customer acquisition costs (CAC) and higher return on ad spend (ROAS). In contrast, brands in the pink zone struggle with lower engagement, lower ad performance, and ultimately, lower profitability.

Given these insights, Trendio has developed proprietary technology to not only maximize the number of affiliates working with our client brands but also to ensure higher-performing partnerships—driving, on average, a +72% increase in average sales per affiliate post. Our solution includes:

• Access to 1.5M+ Verified TikTok Shop Affiliates: Our database classifies, scores, and links affiliates based on relevance and performance potential.
• AI-Powered Affiliate Matching: We leverage a machine-learning model to predict which affiliates are most likely to drive strong engagement and conversions.
• Automated Outreach Within TikTok Shop: Our system streamlines affiliate onboarding and content production to help brands scale efficiently.

The Bottom Line

Success on TikTok Shop is not random—it is highly correlated with affiliate-driven content creation. Brands that understand this dynamic and actively invest in scalable, high-quality affiliate partnerships are the ones that win. With the right strategy and execution, TikTok Shop can become a highly profitable sales channel rather than a high-risk bet.