One of the most common inquiries we receive at Trendio is how to project the potential of TikTok Shop for a brand. The challenge lies in the broad variability of performance observed across different sellers on the platform. While some brands have seemingly skyrocketed overnight—turning from relative unknowns into $10 million businesses in a matter of months—others have struggled despite significant investment. At first glance, success on TikTok Shop can appear random.

Making Sense of the Chaos

To bring clarity to this unpredictable landscape, we combined public data and internal Trendio analytics to analyze sales distribution by brand maturity within the beauty and personal care category, as an example. Our approach:

• Horizontal Axis: We ranked each TikTok Shop seller by their sales percentile (e.g., a shop ranked in the 10th percentile outperforms 90% of other sellers).
• Vertical Axis: We plotted the annualized Gross Merchandise Value (GMV)—TikTok’s key metric for sales volume.
• Results: We mapped data points and fitted a curve to illustrate trends in brand success.

The “Winner Takes All” Dynamic

In conducting this exercise, what surprised us the most was the extreme concentration of sales among top players, much greater that what you would find at Amazon or Walmart. TikTok Shop operates as a “winner takes all” ecosystem, where top sellers gain outsized advantages. Consider the affiliate experience: when influencers enter the Affiliate Center on TikTok, they are immediately shown the best-selling brands and products. These top players are prioritized in recommendations, making it even harder for emerging brands to break through.

The Path to TikTok Shop Success

For newer brands, climbing the ranks can feel like an uphill battle. Many increase their shop ranking without experiencing significant sales—until they break into the top 10% of sellers. This is the critical threshold where acceleration begins. While 10% may sound high, it is worth remembering that there are over 200,000 sellers on TikTok Shop, many of which are ‘Mom and Pop’ type businesses or test accounts that are not truly activated. Reaching the top 10% means being among the top 20,000 shops, which suddenly sounds more feasible.

However, success requires patience and persistence. Brands that fail to “cross the TikTok Shop chasm” often drop out too early. Many of our self-service clients generate initial affiliate interest, but if they don’t see immediate sales or ROI, they abandon their efforts within weeks. In reality, most successful sellers take 4-6 months to hit their stride.

The Takeaway: TikTok Shop Requires Long-Term Commitment

TikTok Shop presents one of the biggest opportunities for emerging brands, but it demands the same level of investment and strategic commitment as entering any new retail channel. Brands that embrace a long-term approach—rather than expecting overnight success—are the ones that ultimately unlock TikTok Shop’s full potential.